Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 11

Liverpool

LIV

Manchester United

MUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Liverpool53%
Draw24%
Man United23%

Expected goals

1.84 – 1.17

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–08.2%
  • 1–25.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession48%
48%Territory39%
16%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.08
4.4%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Liverpool, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.