Premier League · Matchweek 11
Liverpool
LIV
Manchester United
MUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool41%
Draw26%
Man United34%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.46
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession57%
50%Territory48%
16%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Liverpool, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.