Premier League · Matchweek 11
Chelsea
CHE
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea51%
Draw26%
Leeds23%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.03
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leeds will have the ball; Chelsea will not mind.
47%Possession56%
35%Territory34%
16%From set plays42%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.6%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.