Premier League · Matchweek 11
Brentford
BRE
Everton
EVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brentford44%
Draw27%
Everton28%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.17
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession41%
39%Territory40%
33%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.9%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Everton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.