Premier League · Matchweek 11
Aston Villa
AVL
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa51%
Draw26%
Sunderland23%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.02
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sunderland get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession47%
32%Territory34%
22%From set plays51%
0.10Chance quality0.06
4.8%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.