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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 11

Aston Villa

AVL

Sunderland

SUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa40%
Draw29%
Sunderland31%

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.11

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.9%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Aston Villa will have the ball; Sunderland will not mind.

56%Possession45%
47%Territory40%
7%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.15
3.5%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.