Premier League · Matchweek 11
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth55%
Draw25%
Nottm Forest20%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.00
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nottm Forest get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession45%
39%Territory34%
10%From set plays30%
0.16Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.