Premier League · Matchweek 10
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nottm Forest26%
Draw26%
Man City48%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.62
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Nottm Forest will not mind.
39%Possession65%
36%Territory44%
19%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.15
7.8%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nottm Forest, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.