Premier League · Matchweek 10
Manchester United
MUN
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man United44%
Draw25%
Aston Villa31%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.39
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession44%
39%Territory32%
18%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Man United
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.