Premier League · Matchweek 10
Manchester United
MUN
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man United56%
Draw23%
Aston Villa20%
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.09
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
48%Territory47%
11%From set plays7%
0.09Chance quality0.10
3.1%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Aston Villa
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.