Premier League · Matchweek 9
Liverpool
LIV
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool24%
Draw28%
Arsenal48%
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.45
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession57%
50%Territory49%
16%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.15
5.4%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Liverpool, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.