Premier League · Matchweek 8
Sunderland
SUN
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sunderland36%
Draw28%
Leeds36%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.34
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession43%
40%Territory31%
37%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.17
8.1%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sunderland, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.