Premier League · Matchweek 8
Ipswich Town
IPS
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ipswich33%
Draw26%
Nottm Forest41%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.56
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession39%
38%Territory36%
8%From set plays19%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.1%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ipswich, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.