Premier League · Matchweek 8
Aston Villa
AVL
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa22%
Draw25%
Man City53%
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.69
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Aston Villa will not mind.
56%Possession65%
47%Territory44%
7%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.15
3.5%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Aston Villa
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.