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Premier League · Matchweek 8

Aston Villa

AVL

Manchester City

MCI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa22%
Draw25%
Man City53%

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.69

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 0111.8%
  • 1111.5%
  • 129.7%
  • 029.2%
  • 007.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Man City will have the ball; Aston Villa will not mind.

56%Possession65%
47%Territory44%
7%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.15
3.5%Directness3.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.