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Premier League · Matchweek 7

Everton

EVE

Chelsea

CHE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Everton39%
Draw27%
Chelsea35%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.41

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.8%
  • 108.6%
  • 218.5%
  • 018.1%
  • 128.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

41%Possession47%
40%Territory46%
27%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Everton, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.