Premier League · Matchweek 7
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth50%
Draw26%
Sunderland24%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.12
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession45%
41%Territory40%
30%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.15
5.2%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.