Premier League · Matchweek 6
Crystal Palace
CRY
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crystal Palace36%
Draw27%
Nottm Forest38%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.47
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
37%Possession39%
30%Territory36%
11%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crystal Palace, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Crystal Palace
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.