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Premier League · Matchweek 6

Crystal Palace

CRY

Nottingham Forest

NFO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Crystal Palace36%
Draw27%
Nottm Forest38%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.47

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.8%
  • 018.6%
  • 128.4%
  • 108.3%
  • 218.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

37%Possession39%
30%Territory36%
11%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness7.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crystal Palace, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.