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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 6

Aston Villa

AVL

Brentford

BRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa35%
Draw28%
Brentford37%

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.35

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 0–19.6%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Brentford get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession48%
47%Territory39%
7%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.08
3.5%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.