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Premier League · Matchweek 6

Arsenal

ARS

Leeds United

LEE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arsenal63%
Draw23%
Leeds14%

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.81

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1013.3%
  • 2011.9%
  • 1110.2%
  • 219.8%
  • 007.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.

57%Possession43%
49%Territory31%
22%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.17
3.7%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.