Premier League · Matchweek 6
Arsenal
ARS
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal63%
Draw23%
Leeds14%
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.81
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Arsenal will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.
57%Possession43%
49%Territory31%
22%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.17
3.7%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.