Premier League · Matchweek 5
Manchester City
MCI
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City64%
Draw22%
Sunderland15%
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.85
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Sunderland will not mind.
65%Possession45%
44%Territory40%
24%From set plays37%
0.15Chance quality0.15
3.9%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.