Premier League · Matchweek 5
Brentford
BRE
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brentford42%
Draw25%
Chelsea33%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.49
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession47%
39%Territory46%
33%From set plays24%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.