Premier League · Matchweek 5
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Liverpool
LIV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth41%
Draw26%
Liverpool33%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.39
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession60%
41%Territory50%
30%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Liverpool. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.