Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 27
St. Mirren
STM
Motherwell
MOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Mirren29%
Draw26%
Motherwell45%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.62
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession50%
30%Territory33%
28%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Mirren, 4 for Motherwell.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.