Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 26
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Dundee FC
DUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts41%
Draw23%
Dundee FC36%
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.74
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–05.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession48%
36%Territory26%
49%From set plays48%
0.09Chance quality0.14
7.3%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 3 for Dundee FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.