Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 25
Kilmarnock
KIL
Motherwell
MOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kilmarnock34%
Draw25%
Motherwell41%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.69
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession50%
37%Territory33%
26%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.7%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for Motherwell.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.