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Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 25

Kilmarnock

KIL

Motherwell

MOT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kilmarnock34%
Draw25%
Motherwell41%

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.69

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 0–17.2%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession50%
37%Territory33%
26%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.7%Directness5.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for Motherwell.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.