Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 25
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
St. Mirren
STM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts49%
Draw24%
St. Mirren27%
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.41
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession50%
36%Territory30%
49%From set plays28%
0.09Chance quality0.12
7.3%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 4 for St. Mirren. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.