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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 24

Hibernian

HIB

Kilmarnock

KIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hibernian45%
Draw25%
Kilmarnock30%

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.35

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 1–27.2%
  • 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hibernian get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession54%
32%Territory37%
44%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hibernian, 4 for Kilmarnock. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.