Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 24
Falkirk
FAL
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Falkirk43%
Draw26%
Hearts32%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.40
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession48%
28%Territory36%
16%From set plays49%
0.10Chance quality0.09
7.6%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Falkirk, 3 for Hearts. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.