Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 23
Kilmarnock
KIL
St. Mirren
STM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kilmarnock49%
Draw24%
St. Mirren27%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.37
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–06.7%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession50%
37%Territory30%
26%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for St. Mirren.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.