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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 23

Aberdeen

ABE

Heart of Midlothian

HEA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aberdeen51%
Draw23%
Hearts25%

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.36

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–07.7%
  • 2–06.9%
  • 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession48%
36%Territory36%
33%From set plays49%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness7.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aberdeen, 3 for Hearts. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.