Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 22
St. Mirren
STM
Aberdeen
ABE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Mirren32%
Draw27%
Aberdeen42%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.53
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
30%Territory36%
28%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Mirren, 3 for Aberdeen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.