Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 22
St. Mirren
STM
Aberdeen
ABE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Mirren47%
Draw25%
Aberdeen28%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.27
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession41%
34%Territory32%
18%From set plays33%
0.11Chance quality0.07
7.3%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Mirren, 4 for Aberdeen.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.