Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 22
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Kilmarnock
KIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts57%
Draw23%
Kilmarnock21%
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.18
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts will have the ball; Kilmarnock will not mind.
57%Possession46%
31%Territory39%
26%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Hearts, 4 for Kilmarnock.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kilmarnock
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.