Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 22
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Kilmarnock
KIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts45%
Draw23%
Kilmarnock32%
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.69
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession54%
36%Territory37%
49%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.12
7.3%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 4 for Kilmarnock. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.