Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 21
St. Johnstone
STJ
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Johnstone35%
Draw26%
Hearts40%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.61
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession57%
36%Territory31%
15%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.12
3.4%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Johnstone, 4 for Hearts.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.