Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 21
St. Johnstone
STJ
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Johnstone36%
Draw24%
Hearts40%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.76
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession48%
36%Territory36%
40%From set plays49%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.9%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Johnstone, 3 for Hearts. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.