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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 21

Kilmarnock

KIL

Falkirk

FAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kilmarnock44%
Draw26%
Falkirk31%

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.35

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kilmarnock will have the ball; Falkirk will not mind.

54%Possession41%
37%Territory28%
26%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.7%Directness7.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for Falkirk.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.