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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 21

Kilmarnock

KIL

Falkirk

FAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kilmarnock44%
Draw25%
Falkirk31%

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.40

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kilmarnock get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

46%Possession43%
39%Territory32%
32%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for Falkirk.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.