Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 20
St. Johnstone
STJ
Aberdeen
ABE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Johnstone29%
Draw25%
Aberdeen46%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.68
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession45%
36%Territory36%
40%From set plays33%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.9%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Johnstone, 3 for Aberdeen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.