Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 20
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Hibernian
HIB
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts42%
Draw25%
Hibernian33%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.45
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession56%
36%Territory32%
49%From set plays44%
0.09Chance quality0.11
7.3%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 3 for Hibernian. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.