Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 20
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Hibernian
HIB
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts50%
Draw24%
Hibernian26%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.32
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
31%Territory39%
26%From set plays18%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Hearts, 4 for Hibernian.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.