Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 19
Dundee United
DUD
Kilmarnock
KIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dundee United46%
Draw25%
Kilmarnock30%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.42
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession54%
36%Territory37%
29%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dundee United, 4 for Kilmarnock. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.