Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 18
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Motherwell
MOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts34%
Draw25%
Motherwell41%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.73
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession50%
36%Territory33%
49%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.14
7.3%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 4 for Motherwell. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.