Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 18
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Motherwell
MOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts52%
Draw23%
Motherwell25%
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.32
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession64%
31%Territory40%
26%From set plays14%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Hearts, 4 for Motherwell.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.