Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 18
Falkirk
FAL
Aberdeen
ABE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Falkirk35%
Draw28%
Aberdeen37%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Aberdeen get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession45%
28%Territory36%
16%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.11
7.6%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Falkirk, 3 for Aberdeen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.