Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 18
Dundee United
DUD
St. Mirren
STM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dundee United49%
Draw25%
St. Mirren25%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.18
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession50%
36%Territory30%
29%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dundee United, 4 for St. Mirren. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.