Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 17
St. Mirren
STM
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Mirren39%
Draw25%
Hearts36%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession48%
30%Territory36%
28%From set plays49%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.3%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Mirren, 3 for Hearts. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.