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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 17

Motherwell

MOT

Kilmarnock

KIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Motherwell49%
Draw24%
Kilmarnock27%

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.35

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–08.1%
  • 2–06.9%
  • 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Motherwell will have the ball; Kilmarnock will not mind.

64%Possession46%
40%Territory39%
14%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.10
2.8%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Motherwell, 4 for Kilmarnock.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.