Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 17
Motherwell
MOT
Kilmarnock
KIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Motherwell54%
Draw23%
Kilmarnock23%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.29
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession54%
33%Territory37%
21%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.12
5.1%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Motherwell, 4 for Kilmarnock.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Motherwell
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.