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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 17

Dundee FC

DUN

Falkirk

FAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dundee FC47%
Draw25%
Falkirk28%

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.27

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 2–07.1%
  • 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dundee FC get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

36%Possession43%
26%Territory32%
26%From set plays11%
0.13Chance quality0.11
5.6%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dundee FC, 4 for Falkirk. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.