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Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 16

St. Johnstone

STJ

St. Mirren

STM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

St. Johnstone42%
Draw25%
St. Mirren33%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.51

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.6%
  • 218.8%
  • 127.6%
  • 107.3%
  • 226.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession46%
36%Territory34%
15%From set plays18%
0.14Chance quality0.11
3.4%Directness7.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Johnstone, 4 for St. Mirren.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.