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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 16

Kilmarnock

KIL

Hibernian

HIB

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kilmarnock42%
Draw26%
Hibernian33%

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.41

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 1–27.6%
  • 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hibernian get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession56%
37%Territory32%
26%From set plays44%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 3 for Hibernian. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.