Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 16
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Aberdeen
ABE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts37%
Draw25%
Aberdeen38%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.64
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession45%
36%Territory36%
49%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.11
7.3%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 3 for Aberdeen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.