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Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 16

Heart of Midlothian

HEA

Aberdeen

ABE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hearts37%
Draw25%
Aberdeen38%

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.64

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.5%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–18.1%
  • 2–26.9%
  • 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

48%Possession45%
36%Territory36%
49%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.11
7.3%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 3 for Aberdeen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.