Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 15
St. Mirren
STM
Kilmarnock
KIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Mirren50%
Draw24%
Kilmarnock26%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.35
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession46%
34%Territory39%
18%From set plays32%
0.11Chance quality0.10
7.3%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Mirren, 4 for Kilmarnock.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kilmarnock
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.