Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 15
St. Mirren
STM
Kilmarnock
KIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Mirren39%
Draw25%
Kilmarnock36%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.58
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession54%
30%Territory37%
28%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for St. Mirren, 4 for Kilmarnock.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.