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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 15

Motherwell

MOT

Hibernian

HIB

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Motherwell42%
Draw25%
Hibernian33%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.51

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–27.6%
  • 1–07.3%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

64%Possession56%
40%Territory39%
14%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.09
2.8%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Motherwell, 4 for Hibernian.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.