Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 15
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Celtic
CEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts34%
Draw25%
Celtic41%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession61%
31%Territory48%
26%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.7%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Hearts, 4 for Celtic.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.