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Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 15

Aberdeen

ABE

Dundee FC

DUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aberdeen40%
Draw28%
Dundee FC32%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.27

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.4%
  • 1010.0%
  • 018.8%
  • 218.6%
  • 007.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

41%Possession36%
32%Territory26%
33%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.13
5.5%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Aberdeen, 3 for Dundee FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.