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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 15

Aberdeen

ABE

Dundee FC

DUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aberdeen47%
Draw25%
Dundee FC28%

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.37

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 1–26.9%
  • 2–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dundee FC get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession48%
36%Territory26%
33%From set plays48%
0.11Chance quality0.14
5.8%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aberdeen, 3 for Dundee FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.