Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 13
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Falkirk
FAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts44%
Draw25%
Falkirk31%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.39
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hearts get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession41%
36%Territory28%
49%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.3%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hearts, 4 for Falkirk. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 69 matches, not the full season.