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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 11

Dundee FC

DUN

Kilmarnock

KIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dundee FC47%
Draw25%
Kilmarnock28%

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.27

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 2–07.1%
  • 1–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kilmarnock will have the ball; Dundee FC will not mind.

36%Possession46%
26%Territory39%
26%From set plays32%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dundee FC, 4 for Kilmarnock. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.