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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 11

Aberdeen

ABE

Falkirk

FAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aberdeen44%
Draw26%
Falkirk29%

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.25

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 1–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Aberdeen get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

41%Possession43%
32%Territory32%
33%From set plays11%
0.07Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Aberdeen, 4 for Falkirk.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.